Is Mudavadi the Determinant Charm Maiden for 2022?
Over the weekend, Azimio La Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga was in Western Kenya at Vihiga during the burial ceremony of Musalia Mudavadi’s stepmother Rosebella Jerono Mudavadi in Sabatia. For the first time in months the two leaders shared a platform.
This offered Raila an opportunity to court Mudavadi by hinting that he hoped the two of them could work together in future. From an observers point of view, this request sits on the edge of balance whose tipping no one can candidly point out.
This came barely a few days after William Ruto’s tour of western Kenya last week where he too stretched out his hand to the ANC leader to join his camp and thus boost Ruto’s bid to ascend to the presidency which of course begs the question, at whose expense will Mudavadi do this?
It is no secret that the two frontrunners for the 2022 presidential elections are William Ruto and Raila Amollo Odinga. Yet all these has not been able to sway Mudavadi into identifying himself with any of the two this far.
In fact, all possibilities point out to a case where Musalia Mudavadi will make it to the ballot as the flagbearer of his party ANC and not even under any alliance arrangement let alone under any of the two front runners. This can be seen openly in the way he, Mudavadi, has been presenting himself albeit the fact that there is the One Kenya Alliance (OKA).
The arrangement of convenience under the OKA does not seem to augur well in favor of Mudavadi since one of the co-principals under the umbrella is Moses Wetangula of Ford Kenya whose party is maimed with conflict and disunity and one in whom even his own back yard has lost trust in.
The other co-principal, Kalonzo Musyoka cannot be fully trusted. If history is anything to go by in judging his present, then everybody seems to have issues of trust with him and Mudavadi knows too well that putting all his trust in Kalonzo either supporting him or being his main man may spell disaster. A fact that my be shared by Kalonzo himself on the other principals.
On the edge is Gideon Moi who is the leader of the oldest party KANU. His is a case of the man who decides not to go to the village square for dance yet even when he remains at home, everybody can see that the spirit is in the village square and only the body is at home.
Gideon Moi seems to be right in the Raila Camp yet at home he seats at the back of OKA due to perhaps crisis identity. For Mudavadi to build his image as the guy to watch if one wants to court Western Kenya, he has been staging what I could call the one man show from among the OKA arrangement.
It seems to be working since the maiden image he has cut for himself seems to be attracting the main suitors to come and court him. And when they come, he knows he has something to give him bargain. In the backyard is Cleophas Malala who somehow keeps telling Mudavadi that perhaps it is high time he looked beyond 2022 and it is something that looks to be working slowly for the avid observer.
A lot of supporters have been reminding Mudavadi that he is a key person in the western block and that if he plays his cards well, then as one of the possible swing blocks in the coming general election will catapult him into the center stage of being a key player in it.
On a different scale though comes the big question, the maiden courting and beckoning of Mudavadi by Raila and Ruto means what for Mudavadi himself. And that is the question that most of us are asking ourselves. Do you see a possibility of Ruto or even Raila making Mudavadi a running mate for the 2022 general election?
One of the reason I saw in advance that worked in Raila’s favor with the breaking apart of NASA was the hard cracking issues of the 2022 candidate and running mate. Now that Raila standards away on a cliff, he has autonomy to play the right cards in choosing the best running mate if he is to get to state house next year.
If you asked me and I know we may share the same ideology on this, neither Kalonzo, Wetangula nor Musalia will be Raila’s running mate. That said and done, Mudavadi too may not likely be Ruto’s running mate. Yet of the three OKA principals, in Mudavadi lies the greatest odds of making to the inner key circle of Ruto or Raila’s camp in offering a key hand towards winning the 2022 general election.
When that happens, Mudavadi will be apart of the key person in the new government that will be put in place for the next half a decade post 2022.
The catch is simple, the decision that Mudavadi will make. If he decides to go alone to the very end, of course he will not be the winner but if he plays it well, he will be a key player in the next government.