Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto? The political Dynamics at Play Now.
Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi promised that he would make a major announcement on Sunday the 23rd of January 2022 during the Amani National Congress (ANC) national delegates conference. He made us believe that the announcement would cause a big earthquake.
In an honest opinion though, I didn’t expect it to be more than the P-wave. When it finally happened and I measured it on my seismometer, it only confirmed my anticipations. What the whole exercise caused was simply body waves.
Let me take you through a little study of seismology. Seismology to begin with is the study of earthquakes and seismic waves that move through and around the earth and a seismologist is a scientist who devotes his/her time to the study of earthquakes and seismic waves.
There are two types of waves majorly; body waves and surface waves. Body waves include the P and S-waves and travel through the earth’s inner layers whereas the surface waves can only move along the surface of the planet.
For your information, body waves generally do not cause much damage. On the other hand, surface waves move slower than body waves but are larger in amplitude and are the most destructive type of seismic waves.
Back to the Musalia story. When William Ruto stood to speak, he said that he didn’t expect much of a seismic wave. But he could agree then that that wave was more than simply the ripple he expected. What he didn’t confess was that his expectation was the P-type of the wave, the least of the types of waves and that only his presence in the conference made it move to the S-type of the body waves.
Mark you, the P and S-type are non-destructive body waves. What was new in the announcement that we didn’t expect anyway? I have liked Mudavadi’s demeanor in terms of pointing out pertinent issues with the ruling government, albeit with a soft stand.
In his speech, he pointed out a regime that is filled with self-gratification and corruption void of the electorate’s concerns at heart. While pointing out that, he forgot to realize that William Ruto who is the deputy president in that government was present at that conference and he broke the icing on the cake that the two are now likely to be kit and kin.
How long that happens we do not know. And with that, the One Kenya Alliance suffered a major blow. Kalonzo Musyoka and Gideon Moi became ‘orphans’ yesterday so to say. If they continue to live in denial that OKA exists, it would be akin to the munchkin monkey that lost her young one and continued to hold her and carry her around for days without accepting that the young one was dead.
When Musalia spoke of trust issues, I asked myself who he was addressing. Was he pointing to his most immediate friends in the alliance whom he felt weren’t trustable enough to catapult him to the next level he anticipated?
Was he referring to the ‘historical injustice’ he believes he has received from Raila Odinga in the various alliances he has had with him in the times past? Or was he signaling his allies who have almost successfully courted him to be careful with trust issues should he say the maiden yes?
As they say time and again, give time time and you will unravel even the hardest of issues. I have admired Musalia Mudavadi relatively yet by yesterday I was left to wonder if he can be my president. He lowered the bar, to be honest.
Should he truly choose to work with UDA, where does that place him? Sometimes miracles do happen and one of them will be Ruto choosing him as his running mate for the August election. The greater miracle still will be Ruto agreeing to support Mudavadi and become his running mate.
To Raila Odinga, this is a win for him. No struggles and squabbles in choosing a running mate. Mudavadi is out, the possibility of Kalonzo joining the Azimio la Umoja Movement is small which signals Raila to court the best mate from the mountain.
Imagine for a moment that Kalonzo, Mudavadi, and Raila were together and that Raila needed a running mate. If he would choose a person outside of the two, which is what would have happened finally, the duo would still walk away. It is called seeing the smoke signals ahead of time.
To William Ruto, should Mudavadi choose absolutely to work with him, I am tempted to think that the least he would want to bargain for is a running mate? What of the likes of Waiguru and other key politicians who have sacrificed so much to camp with the deputy president?
Should Mudavadi choose to take the aisle walk with Ruto, it will save Ruto the image that he is working with only young people who have been seen to be driven more by adrenaline rather than the experience and wisdom of the big picture.
Kalonzo and Gideon’s partnership is a dead horse in the most honest terms. Should they work together, they will only add some aura to the August eight election. And there is every possibility that they will independently forge individual alliances with other mainstream movements or team up with other small parties to make up a new alliance.
If they go the independent way, Kanu will end up in the Azimio la Umoja camp and Kalonzo will sojourn to the polls in one-man combat. But then, the gist in Kenyan politics has just begun. As we will be nearing August, the marination will be nearing the close of time as well.
Maybe then, will we see a real earthquake from Musalia Mudavadi? For now, those of my kind can only sit, fold our legs and sing to the lyrics of Maneno Mengi Sipendelei, na Uongo pia sipendelei (we don’t love conflicts and lies) because it is now that lies are beginning to take shape and finger-pointing are gaining momentum.